Expected Value: The Only Scoreboard That Matters

Good poker is the relentless pursuit of +EV decisions — and ignoring short-term results.

What is expected value?

Expected value (EV) is the average amount a decision wins or loses if you could repeat it thousands of times. A +EV play makes money long-term; a -EV play loses it. Winning poker is simply making the highest-EV choice available, over and over.

The formula

EV = (%win × $won) − (%lose × $lost)

Say you go all-in for $100 into a $150 pot as a 60% favorite. EV = (0.60 × $250) − (0.40 × $100) = $150 − $40 = +$110. Even though you'll lose 40% of the time, the play is hugely profitable.

Fold equity makes bluffs +EV. If a $50 bluff into a $100 pot makes opponents fold just 40% of the time, you win $100 four times in ten and lose $50 the rest: EV = (0.40 × $100) − (0.60 × $50) = +$10. Profitable even with the worst hand.

Why you must separate results from decisions

Poker has enormous short-term variance. You will lose with aces and win with junk — frequently. If you judge your play by whether you won the hand, you'll "learn" all the wrong lessons. Judge it by EV: did I make the most profitable decision with the information I had? Do that consistently and the results follow over a large enough sample. This is also why bankroll management matters — it keeps you solvent through the swings.